State Elections 2013

BJP has just won 3 states and are hand-shaking distance from Power in Delhi. Full marks to Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh in carrying their state for third consequitive time. Also all the praises to Rajmata in able to wrest power from Congress. Before I dive into Delhi, let me provide my analysis of the BJP wining MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgargh.

In both MP and Chattisgarh, BJP retained power. In both states, they did mix populist measures along with hard policy decisions. So, when BJP opposes these populist measures at center, they better remember that the same policies are wining them these states. In Chattisgargh, BJP had to face a little music in failing to stand upto Naxalities strongly… mainly in Baster area. Thus even with popularity of Raman Singh, the vote percentage between Congress and BJP was almost same. The challenge before these two CMs is how to take development programs forward and yet keep voters on BJP’s side for next 6 months.

In Rajasthan, Congress lost due to corruption. Ashok Gehlot is a good man.. but what can he do when his party-men are corrupt. Moreover there are talks of tickets being given to some candidates due to their lineage rather than popularity. Congress tried hard in last 6 months to capture voter attention by launching various populist schemes. However it was too late and voter saw through their game plan. In all, Rajmata was able to point these holes to voters and promised a clean & development oriented government. Modi was a considerable factor as the state BJP played up the good goverance as demonstrated by Modi in Gujrat.

Now the results in Capital. First, upper middle class and middle middle class folks exercised their rights in a big way this time. And AAP was able to capture their idealist imagination of corruption free society. And as Delhi is not a state which really has to care about industrial growth etc, the populist slogans of AAP had more effect. Moreover, people of Delhi have moved to AAP as they want to recognize Anna’s effort in bringing out Jan Lokpal. They are also angry about Rape incidents in Delhi and did not find other parties to be serious about these issues. Now the challenge before AAP is whether they will join BJP in government or sit in opposition. If they sit in opposition, any other government will be lame duck government which will not be able to deliver anything. So, AAP runs a risk of being seen as a spoiler rather than an effective party. Though one might feel that Congress is decimated in the state, I do beg to differ. Except corruption, team B (AAP) is no different from team A (Congress). Thus as people start to forget about CWG etc, Congress will inch back into Delhi.

In all the election results are good. Now it’s a waiting game to see what more there in Congress’s arsenal to be unleashed before the national elections 2014.